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Iceberg

Policy Shakeups, Governance Wakeups

96

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

Policy Shakeups, Governance Wakeups

December 2, 2025

Welcome to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

To celebrate our return from Thanksgiving break, we’re featuring another tool in the TrustWorks Collective toolkit: our Annual Board Assessment Survey. You can learn more about how it works in our Dialing In section, where we interview its creator and TrustWorks Collective Senior Advisor, Laura Sebastyn. And our Beyond the Whiteboard section takes a look at the booming GLP-1 market. But first, the news:


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Newsletter Tags:

policy, vaccines, site-neutral, pharma, governance

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Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. GOP struggling to unite around healthcare plan.

  • Last week, President Trump was expected to announce a new policy framework that would have extended the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies for two years with limitations, including new income caps and minimum premium payments, only to abandon the plan amid pushback from Congressional Republicans. 
  • The Senate is committed to voting next week on a healthcare proposal, but elected Republicans are reportedly divided between a centrist camp supporting a limited subsidy extension, which could resemble the President’s pulled framework, and a more conservative wing that prefers to continue rolling back the ACA while redirecting some funding to Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).

TrustWorks Take: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s surprise retirement announcement has become an unexpected canary in the coal mine for broader Republican dysfunction on healthcare. After criticizing her party for allowing the ACA subsidies to expire without an alternative plan, Rep. Greene announced she will be retiring on January 5, 2026. Reportedly, she’s one of many House Republicans who feel disrespected by the White House and party leadership. Healthcare policy is at the center of these disagreements, as the White House has failed to craft a unifying plan that satisfies both moderate Republicans, worried that premium spikes will hurt their reelection campaigns, and party hardliners, who view ACA subsidy extensions as a nonstarter.
 
Because extending the ACA subsidies is so popular, with even half of Republican voters in favor, elected Republicans have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. Attempting to thread the needle (and fulfill President Trump's call to send healthcare subsidies “directly to the people”), Senate Republicans are exploring ways to redirect funds toward HSA-style accounts, but HSAs can’t be used to pay for premiums, which have become the focal point for rising healthcare costs. Any measure that can clear both chambers at this point would likely be too little, too late to address voters’ sticker shock on healthcare premiums. With retirements shrinking the Republicans’ House majority, their room for error on crafting such a measure has never been smaller.
 

2. FDA connects COVID shots to child deaths ahead of vaccine meeting.

  • A Food and Drug Administration (FDA) internal memo, written by the director of the FDA’s vaccine division Dr. Vinay Prasad, claimed without evidence that “at least 10 children have died after and because of receiving COVID-19 vaccination,” and outlined planned revisions to vaccine approval processes.
  • Dr. Prasad wrote the memo, leaked last Friday, in advance of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting this week, in which the recently reconstituted committee will be discussing and potentially amending the childhood vaccine schedule.

TrustWorks Take: The FDA has yet to produce any supporting evidence for its claim that the COVID vaccine directly caused the deaths of at least ten children. The agency has only stated that these deaths were recorded in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) and ignored or covered up by the Biden administration. A chorus of experts have expressed skepticism over these causal claims, which are difficult to prove from self-reported VAERS cases and need to face peer review by a medical journal. However, for an administration that wants to promote vaccine skepticism, this memo could provide sufficient cover for any upcoming changes to the childhood vaccine schedule. 
 
Under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s leadership, the Trump administration keeps finding new ways to undermine vaccine confidence. Once-trusted regulatory bodies like ACIP have become politicized, and official government sources are now promoting debunked theories around vaccines and autism. Dissenters, such as former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Susan Monarez, are pushed out and replaced by vaccine critics, like the CDC's new deputy director. These moves, which are damaging in their own right, have also laid the groundwork for ACIP to upend the childhood vaccine schedule in its meeting later this week. This would trigger a cascade of changes to state and local vaccine policies impacting requirements for schools, childcare centers, and pediatric practice standards.
 

3. OPPS final rule eliminates Inpatient-Only List.

  • Last month, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published its 2026 Hospital Outpatient Prospective Services Payment System (OPPS) and Ambulatory Surgery Center (ASC) final rule, headlined by a 2.6 percent Medicare pay bump, up slightly from the proposed rule. 
  • The final rule confirmed that Medicare will be phasing out over three years the Inpatient-Only (IPO) List, which currently bars 1,731 billing codes from being performed in outpatient settings.
  • In another push toward site neutrality, hospital-owned outpatient facilities will be paid to administer medications at the same rate as physician offices, which CMS projects will save $290M next year.

TrustWorks Take: In the final year of the first Trump administration, CMS promulgated a rule to phase out the Medicare IPO List, only for the Biden administration to undo those changes and restore the IPO List in 2022. So, it’s no surprise that the second Trump administration picked up where it left off by reissuing this policy. Trump's CMS has made it clear that it does not recognize a patient-safety distinction between the inpatient and outpatient procedures, and it will be far more permissive toward procedures performed at ASCs. This has huge implications for hospitals because, as evidenced by knee and hip replacements, procedures tend to migrate quickly to their lowest-cost allowable settings. And once Medicare covers something on an outpatient basis, commercial payers are quick to follow. 
 
Many health systems are still holding onto inpatient procedural revenue as an important cross subsidy, but the march toward site neutrality feels inevitable. The transition can be slowed down or sped up, but it’s going in only one direction. The only remaining strategic question is how quickly systems can prepare for it. For this reason, we created our Site-Neutral Payment Calculator, which allows providers to quantify the financial implications of site-neutral reform across their own procedures and care settings.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Imagining a Ceiling for GLP-1 Spending
Starting with the FDA’s approval of Ozempic to treat Type 2 Diabetes in 2017, the hype around and demand for GLP-1 drugs has skyrocketed, driven by the breadth of conditions they can treat and the impressive results they return, especially for weight management. In addition to Type 2 Diabetes, GLP-1 drugs have now received FDA approval to treat obesity, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, serious liver disease, and sleep apnea, and they’ve shown promise with other conditions like substance use disorder and osteoarthritis. (There’s also been hope that GLP-1s could treat Alzheimer’s, but Novo Nordisk just announced unsuccessful early trial results on that front.) List-price sales of GLP-1s increased from $14B in 2018 to $72B in 2023, with sales growth accelerating over that period as obesity-indicated GLP-1s started hitting the market.

 
In light of such rapid growth, it’s worth exploring how much our healthcare system could spend on GLP-1s at their peak. As of May 2025, about 12 percent of US adults had ever taken a GLP-1 drug, and another 14 percent were interested in taking them. That works out to about one in four adults, or 66M people, who can be considered in the market for GLP-1s. Prices vary widely based on insurance, but if each of these 66M adults paid the TrumpRx cash-pay price of $350 per month for their supply, that would amount to a collective $277B spent on GLP-1s per year. For comparison, US net pharmaceutical spending reached $487B in 2024. Of course, a variety of practical limitations would prevent a single class of drugs from ever comprising over half of all drug spend. However, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have been found to be cost-effective at TrumpRx pricing (but not current prices), suggesting that, at a societal level, the averted cases of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease would generate significant returns on investment.

Infographic Tags:

pharma, GLP-1, diabetes, obesity, forecast

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Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Three Questions with Laura Sebastyn, MSM
Principal and Senior Advisor, TrustWorks Collective
 
1. What inspired you to create our Annual Board Assessment Survey?
Anytime we take on work with a physician group or health system, I’m always paying close attention to their governance. Organizations often engage us to address visible challenges that, once you peel back the layers, stem from a governance structure that isn’t fully aligned with the group’s current needs. Governance gaps can show up in many ways: interpersonal tensions, limited engagement, process inefficiencies, or simply having too many voices involved in every decision. It’s helpful when we can see these patterns, but real progress requires the board to see them too. That’s what sparked the idea for the Board Assessment Survey. We designed a self-assessment tool that provides both quantitative and qualitative insight into how the board views its own performance. It’s become an incredibly effective tool for constructive dialogue and meaningful improvement. 
 
2. What makes this Board Assessment Survey different from others?
Most board assessment tools fall into one of two traps: they are either overly complicated and buried in too much theory and jargon, or so generic that they fail to reveal anything meaningful let alone actionable. We built our survey very intentionally to avoid both pitfalls. It's streamlined, but not simplistic. Every question is designed to generate insights boards can act on, and the data it creates allows them to rank and tailor their focus as appropriate.
 
Once we determine who should participate—typically the full board of directors, but also often committees, advisory boards, and physician leadership—we gather emails and administer the survey electronically. The survey questions are grouped by theme, covering areas such as meeting effectiveness, clarity of roles, conflict resolution, and decision-making discipline. After we gather the responses, we analyze the results, which include input from individual confidential discussions, and present a synthesis back to the board, highlighting strengths, misalignments, and practical recommendations. Much of the survey’s impact comes from bringing issues to the surface in a structured, neutral way. Once the board has that shared understanding, finding the right solutions becomes a lot easier.
 
3. What kinds of lessons do boards learn from taking this survey?

The survey works by holding up a mirror to the board, so there’s as many lessons to learn as there are challenges in physician group and health system governance. One big theme, though, is recognizing when the governance structure hasn’t evolved alongside an organization’s growth. Many organizations create their governance structure early on and rarely revisit it, even as their size, strategic direction, and organizational complexity change. For example, I once worked with a multi-specialty group that guaranteed every specialty a seat on the board. That worked just fine in the beginning, but as new specialties were added, the board grew large enough that decision-making became cumbersome. The assessment revealed that most people on the board recognized the need to streamline its structure, and because this insight came from the members themselves, it served as a foundation for making that change. This is exactly why we advocate for annual assessments, to ensure governance remains adaptive, responsive, and aligned with where the organization is headed. 

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Open Enrollment Blues

96

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

Open Enrollment Blues

November 18, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 
One programming note, we’ll be off celebrating Thanksgiving next week, meaning you’ll have to wait until Tuesday December 2 for your next TrustWorks On Call. In the meantime, we are wishing for all our readers to have a restful, grateful, and delicious Thanksgiving break. We are thankful as always for your readership.
 

This week, we’ve got double coverage on health insurance. First, we go Beyond the Whiteboard with a graphic the growth of employer health plan costs, then we’re Dialing In on the expansion of catastrophic coverage in the ACA market. But first, the news:


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Newsletter Tags:

telehealth, policy, mergers, innovation, insurance

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Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Telehealth flexibilities briefly extended as government reopens.

  • As part of last week’s “minibus” bill to end the government shutdown, Congress extended Medicare telehealth flexibilities and hospital-at-home waivers, which had lapsed for the 43-day shutdown, until January 30, 2026.
  • The Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) also published a notice last week that flexibilities allowing the teleprescription of controlled substances will be extended for a fourth time, which is expected to last through the end of 2027. 
  • An $8B cut to Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospitals (DSH), scheduled by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and continuously delayed since 2014, briefly took effect during the shutdown, but Congress has again delayed these cuts until the end of the current continuing resolution on January 30, 2026.

TrustWorks Take: The deal to reopen the government kicked the can down the road for several healthcare policy items, but not very far. Providers' collective exhale of relief over the reinstatement of Medicare telehealth flexibilities, hospital-at-home waivers, and averted DSH cuts will be immediately followed by another round of collective breath-holding as the same provisions hang in the balance during funding negotiations this January. The DEA managed to extend teleprescriptions of controlled substances without a lapse, but the Trump administration has not made public progress on a permanent framework since it rescinded a proposed rule issued by the outgoing Biden administration. 
 
These repeated, short-term extensions are bad policy because they inhibit large-scale, long-term investments from provider organizations, which are necessary for initiatives like hospital-at-home programs to reach full scale. The Medicare telehealth flexibilities enjoy bipartisan support, negligible fiscal impacts, and widespread industry backing, specifically for an extension of at least five years. However, as long as Congress keeps legislating against the funding clock, we’re likely to keep getting short-term thinking instead of long-term extensions.
 

2. Indiana approves COPA hospital merger against FTC wishes.

  • Last week, Indiana Governor Mike Braun announced that the state health department had approved Union Hospital’s acquisition of Terre Haute Regional Hospital from HCA Healthcare under the state’s first-ever Certificate of Public Advantage (COPA), which bypasses federal antitrust regulation in exchange for stronger state oversight. 
  • Union Health lobbied Indiana to pass its COPA law in 2021, specifically so that it could acquire Terre Haute Regional, for which it submitted an application in 2023, before pulling that application amid pushback from federal regulators.
  • Union Health’s resubmitted application in 2025 was still opposed by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Indiana’s attorney general, but the Indiana Department of Health found that the benefits of the merger outweighed the harms, which include creating a “monopoly for inpatient acute care services in Vigo County.” 

TrustWorks Take: COPAs are premised on the idea that regulation can replace competition as the primary constraint keeping hospital prices low and quality high. Although this could be true in theory, hospital mergers that used COPAs have posted a bad track record, according to FTC research. For example, the 1995 COPA that created Mission Health in North Carolina from two competitor hospitals included margin and cost controls, but the system was still found to have increased its commercial inpatient prices by over 20 percent more than its peers during its first decade under the COPA. Then, after Mission Health lobbied North Carolina to repeal its COPA, its prices increased by another 38 percent. Not only are COPA regulations often ineffective at controlling price growth, but also when COPAs expire (as is the case in Indiana), they leave behind an unregulated monopoly. 
 
Despite some disappointing results, state governments keep turning to COPAs because they are an imperfect answer to an important question: how can we support and sustain struggling hospitals? Other research has found that “COPA regulation, if properly designed, can effectively constrain prices in the absence of competition among providers.” The problems arise because it is very difficult for state governments to design a regulatory scheme that prevents evasion while being flexible enough to allow for industry changes over the full COPA duration. Still, for many state legislators, the logic is that it’s better to try a regulated monopoly, with price increases perhaps higher than ideal, than risk an inpatient care desert due to a hospital closure.
 

3. Researchers find answer to pig-kidney transplant rejections.

  • A team of researchers at NYU Langone Health identified and reversed a set of immune reactions that drive the human body’s rejection of genetically modified kidneys grown in pigs for human use, a process known as xenotransplantation.
  • By mapping the immune activity around the transplant, the researchers identified that organ rejection was driven by antibodies and T cells that could be tempered with Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs. 
  • Their report, published last week in Nature, was based on monitoring the transplantation of a genetically engineered porcine kidney into a brain-dead recipient, with a beating heart and on a ventilator, for 61 days after surgery.

TrustWorks Take: At this year’s International Xenotransplantation Association conference held last month, scientists celebrated the success of the first two patients to live with porcine-grown kidneys for at least six months (one of which has since been removed), as well as the launch of clinical trials for xenotransplantation in the US and other countries. The field still faces challenges around minimizing rejections by moderating immune response, which this breakthrough by the NYU Langone researchers helps address, and preventing crossover events of zoonotic diseases, but we’ve reached a turning point now that xenotransplantation is happening successfully.
 
The stakes behind finding a scalable source for kidney donations are massive. In the US, nearly 555K Americans are on dialysis, and about 90K people are registered on the kidney transplant waiting list, but less than 30K kidney transplants are performed each year. The widespread availability of effective and safe porcine kidney transplants could extend the lives of the thousands of people each year who die waiting for kidney transplants, while also generating significant savings for our healthcare system.Almost one in four dollars Medicare spends goes to treating kidney disease. Spending on dialysis for end-stage renal disease occupies seven percent of Medicare’s budget, despite caring for only one percent of its beneficiaries.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Commercial Insurance Premium Increases Feel Unsustainable
Every fall, KFF publishes perhaps the authoritative account of commercial group-coverage price growth with its Employer Health Benefits Survey. Its lookback on 2025 found that family premiums grew by over 6 percent this year, with employers contributing over $20K to annual family premiums, which now total nearly $27K. That equates to an astounding 32 percent of median household income. 
 
It didn’t use to be like this. Since 2010, employer premium contributions have more than doubled and worker contributions have increased 71 percent, whereas the Consumer Price Index has only risen 48 percent and household income just 22 percent in that time. The result of health insurance costs outpacing inflation growth for so many years is the suppression of profit margins for businesses and wages for workers, putting American firms at a competitive disadvantage to companies abroad. Americans say that “costs” are the most urgent health problem facing this country, so it’s no coincidence that opinions on the state of US healthcare coverage are at a fifteen-year low. With each successive year, we ask the question with new urgency, when will employers reach their breaking point? 

Infographic Tags:

insurance, premiums, employers, payers, inflation

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

The Catastrophic Coverage Conundrum
Healthcare is one of those industries where you can’t always avoid taking your work home with you. My family (that is myself, my wife, and our son) recently got our 2026 ACA exchange renewal notice here in Virginia. The same UnitedHealthcare family plan that cost $2,393 per month in 2025 is jumping to $3,310 per month, a 38% increase. We’ve been seriously considering self-insuring and pairing it with a catastrophic-only policy. And as it turns out, the Trump administration was one step ahead of us, having announced in September that it’s now much easier to qualify for a hardship exemption to purchase a catastrophic-coverage ACA plan, which used to be heavily restricted for those 30 and older. 
 
This expansion of catastrophic coverage at a time when healthcare has never been less affordable may seem a little cruel, but it’s also a natural endpoint of trendline we’re on. In 2024, even as the US uninsured rate was near its all-time low, almost one quarter of working-age adults were considered "underinsured,” due to their out-of-pocket cost exposure. As people shift toward lower-premium, higher-deductible plans in response to rising plan prices, we’re encouraging the idea that health insurance is to be had but not used, except in emergencies. Without the ACA subsidies’ premium support, this problem will only intensify, triggering yet another vicious cycle. The problem is that premiums are what make insurance work: everyone pays into a pool, so that those who need help get covered by those who don’t. Instead, we’re losing the point of insurance to the size of the deductible, which the deregulation of catastrophic coverage will only exacerbate. The two groups of people selecting catastrophic coverage this fall will be people of means who can afford to self-insure and those who can’t afford anything but catastrophic coverage, when in a more just system the former would be subsidizing the latter.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. Please enjoy your Thanksgiving holiday, and we’ll see you the Tuesday after that with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here!), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D'Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Site (Neutral) Unseen

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

Site (Neutral) Unseen

November 11, 2025

Welcome to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week comes with another special announcement. In service of always finding new ways to empower providers organizations, we’re thrilled to share the launch of the TrustWorks Collective Tools page. This week’s featured tool is our Site-Neutral Payment Calculator: a free, web-based tool that allows hospitals, physician groups, and other stakeholders to compare their Medicare rates to a potential site-neutral payment scenario. You can learn more about how it works in our Beyond the Whiteboard and Dialing In sections. But first, the news:


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Newsletter Tags:

Congress, ACA, Pharma, pregnancy, site-neutral

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Congress to end shutdown without ACA subsidy extension.

  • On Monday night, eight senators in the Democratic caucus voted for a Republican plan to reopen the government with a continuing resolution that funds all federal agencies through at least January 30, 2026, but does not address the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies. 
  • As concessions for their support, Senate Democrats were promised a Senate floor vote to extend the ACA subsidies for another year, and federal workers laid off during the shutdown will be rehired. 
  • The House will take the final vote to fund the government as soon as Wednesday, which would end the longest shutdown in US history after 42 days.

TrustWorks Take: The shutdown began with Senate Democrats taking a stand on preserving affordable healthcare, but for the aisle-crossing Senators, the mounting consequences on air travel, nutritional aid, and the federal workforce ultimately proved more pressing. Even if a one-year extension of the ACA subsidies passes in the Senate, the measure would have low prospects for success in the Republican-controlled House.
 
Meanwhile, Republican Senators have resurrected talks of the ACA being a “broken system” that may need replacing, and President Trump is calling for insurance subsidies instead to be sent “directly to the people” to purchase their own healthcare, neither of which amount to serious or actionable policy proposals. Republicans have also expressed interest in more marginal policy tweaks, like restoring ACA cost-sharing reductions, and expanding the use of health savings accounts and individual coverage health reimbursement arrangements (ICHRAs). By the time Congress is ready to legislate on healthcare coverage again next year, an estimated 4.8M people will have become uninsured, while costs will have soared for millions more.
 

2. White House strikes GLP-1 deals with Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk.

  • Last Thursday, the White House announced that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have committed to selling their GLP-1 treatments to all Americans in direct-to-consumer (D2C) channels for $350 per month, to Medicaid programs for $245 per month, and to qualifying Medicare beneficiaries, via a pilot program, for a $50 monthly copay; these deals do not apply to commercial drug plans. 
  • The drugmakers also agreed that, if their oral GLP-1 medications receive regulatory approval, the lowest doses of these drugs will be sold D2C for $149 per month.
  • In exchange, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have been granted three years of tariff relief, and Novo’s oral formulation of Wegovy and Lilly’s orforglipron, which could become the first approved GLP-1 pills, received National Priority Vouchers that fast track regulatory review time.

TrustWorks Take: This seems to be the Trump White House’s most impactful healthcare deal to date. For their products already on the market, Lilly and Novo lowered their D2C prices by between $50 and $150 per month, good for cash-price discounts of 15 to 30 percent. Compared to Wegovy's list price of $1350, Medicare paying $245 for the drug amounts to an 82 percent discount. For reference, that’s a larger discount than any obtained by the first round of the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, which ranged from 38 to 79 percent off list price. It’s not clear how the discounts under this deal will interact with the statutory Medicare drug negotiations, which are taking place for Ozempic and Wegovy this year.
 
More impactful yet will be the introduction of oral GLP-1 medications at affordable prices. As of May 2025, about 12 percent of Americans had ever taken a GLP-1 drug, and another 14 percent were interested but had yet to, because of issues like cost and coverage. Even if it’s just for the starter dose and paid out-of-pocket, $150 per month for a daily supply of pills to achieve weight-loss results in line with weekly injections should prove incredibly popular with consumers and greatly expand the market of regular users. And we won’t have to wait long to see, as Eli Lilly’s orforglipron is expected to receive regulatory approval by the end of this year.
 

3. Investigation connects C-section overutilization to fetal heartbeat monitoring.

  • A New York Times investigation into why the US rate of C-sections is so high identified continuous, electronic fetal-heartbeat monitoring during labor and delivery as a key driver of potentially unnecessary C-sections, as using it increases the likelihood of Cesarean delivery by 63 percent. 
  • Despite a large body of evidence attesting that electronic monitoring does a poor job of detecting fetal distress, a combination of factors have preserved the practice as a mainstay in American hospitals: risk-averse and change-resistant clinical standards, health system investments in remote patient monitoring (RPM), patient expectations for their care, liability protections from malpractice suits, and the allure of cutting-edge healthcare technology, including unproven AI software that analyzes fetal heartbeats.

TrustWorks Take: Our healthcare system’s stubborn commitment to electronic fetal monitoring, which stands in contrast to peer nations, is a telling example of how and why our healthcare system so often fails to achieve value. Obstetricians know that electronic monitoring during labor is ineffective, but its costs are abstracted and externalized to payers and patients, who associate closer monitoring with better care despite its hidden risks to their health and life. Payers’ tools to change provider behavior are also imperfect. In the case of labor and delivery, the RPM may not even be separately billed, leaving payers nothing to deny. Meanwhile, UnitedHealthcare just announced a sweeping and controversial policy to deny coverage for most uses of RPM, not just the lowest-value use cases like fetal monitoring. 
 
Given health systems’ growing interest in scaling care by extending their labor supply, the significant investments they’ve made in RPM, the returns they’re seeing from RPM in its other applications, and the rise of AI algorithms meant to detect important patterns in patient data, the incentives for fetal monitoring may continue to outweigh the evidence against it. Unfortunately, “the worst test in medicine” won’t go away without a fight.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Preparing for Site Neutrality

Medicare’s embrace of site-neutral payments could significantly reshape how hospital outpatient services are reimbursed, with major implications for provider revenue, care delivery strategy, and regulatory planning. Between Congress considering site-neutral payment reforms that could reduce Medicare hospital reimbursements by upwards of $150B over a decade, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) proposing to equalize payments for drug administration at hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs) and physician offices, it is clear that momentum toward site neutrality is accelerating. 
 
Our Site-Neutral Payment Calculator simulates payment differentials under one version of site-neutral payment reform, in which Medicare payments to HOPDs would equal the lower of Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) Facility rate and PFS Non-Facility rate, applied to the combined professional and technical payment for each. For a simulated HOPD orthopedic practice, the impact of this reform would be devastating, leading to a potential loss of 86 percent of Medicare revenue. Much of this revenue loss comes from CPT 29881 (Knee Arthroscopy), which would see its reimbursement fall from $3,602 to $518, an 85 percent reduction driven by the removal of the technical payment of $3,084.

Of course, instead of this worst-case scenario, CMS could lower the HOPD technical payment to the ambulatory surgery center (ASC) facility rate, which would still incur a significant revenue hit. No matter which version of site-neutral reform takes hold, high-technical surgical services will face the greatest exposure, as site neutrality would align total reimbursement to a much-lower benchmark than HOPD facility costs.

Infographic Tags:

site-neutral, Medicare, CMS, outpatient, physicians

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Three Questions with Michael Levine, MBA
Senior Advisor, Financial and Data Analytics, TrustWorks Collective
 
1. Why did you build this site-neutral payment calculator?
We were working with a physician group that was planning to expand its hospital-based outpatient footprint and wanted us to model the potential impact of site-neutral payment reform. The CFO viewed site neutrality as a matter of when, not if, and wanted to understand how their projected revenue would change if all outpatient services were reimbursed at office-based rates instead of higher hospital rates. When we looked for a tool to simulate that scenario, we realized there wasn’t one available. 
 
So, I built one. The result is an interactive calculator that allows providers to quantify the financial implications of site-neutral reform across their own procedures and care settings.
 
2. What assumptions are built into this tool, and how do they shape interpretation?
The challenge in designing any forward-looking model is that CMS has not yet defined a single permanent framework for site-neutral payment reform. The calculator doesn’t predict the future, but it provides a credible, directional view of how payment equalization could affect providers under the policy patterns CMS has used to date.
 
The core assumption is that CMS will continue to anchor site-neutral reform to the PFS Facility rate, which represents the physician professional payment when a service is performed in a HOPD. Based on recent rulemaking, CMS typically applies a “lower-of” rule. That means capping total reimbursement at the lower of the PFS Facility or Non-Facility rate, rather than averaging rates or raising office payments. Because the PFS Facility rate is usually the lower of the two, it serves here as the standardized benchmark for site-neutral comparison.
 
It’s also unclear whether any revenue reductions from site-neutral reform would be redistributed to maintain budget neutrality (as CMS could do administratively) or retained as budgetary savings (which would require legislation). In either case, the calculator provides a realistic, evidence-based illustration of what those shifts would mean for specific services in any locality.
 
3. How can providers use the insights this tool generates?
Using 2025 Medicare rates, the calculator allows providers to input their actual practice data and see the projected financial impact of site neutrality on their organization. It displays, for each code and setting, how payments would change if CMS applied a site-neutral cap, and it aggregates those differences to quantify the overall effect on Medicare revenue. 
 
We intend for this tool to evolve with the policy environment. When 2026 rates are finalized, I’ll be updating the tool to reflect the latest data. I also plan to incorporate ASC facility rates into the model, to allow for comparison across more settings. 
 

Understanding the financial exposure is only the first step. Our goal is to help health systems and physician groups use this information to inform strategic planning—reassessing site-of-service decisions, operational structures, and physician alignment strategies while there’s still time to adapt.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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There’s No Place Like Home

96

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

There's No Place Like Home

November 4, 2025

Welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. Hope you didn’t miss us too much while we were gone. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week brings you a hospital at home special feature. To learn more about how health systems responded to the Medicare waiver expiring, we interviewed Dr. Taki Michaelidis, Hospital at Home Medical Director at UMass Memorial Health. You can read all about his program and his thoughts on the future of hospital at home in our Beyond the Whiteboard and Dialing In sections. (To complete the picture, perhaps you’ll even be reading this at home.) But first, the news:


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Newsletter Tags:

hospital at home, payers, 340b, CMS, physicians

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. UHG’s and CVS’s provider arms take hits in Q3 reports.

  • In its Q3 investor report, UnitedHealth Group (UHG) beat Wall Street expectations and raised its 2025 earnings guidance slightly thanks to improvements from its insurance business, even as its Q3 earnings were down 50 percent from last year.
  • After a disappointing quarter for UHG’s Optum Health provider arm, Optum CEO Patrick Conway admitted that their value-based care offerings were struggling in part because “the provider network grew too large, [and] the rapid pace of expansion and slower pace of integration resulted in operating inconsistencies.”
  • CVS Health also raised its earnings expectations for 2025 after strong Q3 performances from its insurance and pharmacy businesses.
  • CVS still posted a net loss of $3.2B on the quarter after recording a $5.7B goodwill impairment charge from scaling back growth plans for Oak Street Health. 

TrustWorks Take: In the wake of these companies’ strategic reckonings and recalibrations, it’s easy to forget that in 2023, UHG's Optum assembling a network of 90K employed or affiliated physicians was the talk of the industry, and CVS was earning its share of headlines by acquiring primary care provider Oak Street Health for $10.6B. The industry’s largest vertically integrated payers looked unstoppable. But as Optum’s CEO plainly admitted, the company underestimated the challenges of integration, costs rose, and performance degraded. These are growing pains UHG would have experienced even if the company hadn’t gone on to suffer a series of largely unrelated crises, starting with the Change Healthcare hack. 
 
Meanwhile, CVS bought Oak Street years before it was expected to turn a profit, only to announce a $2B company-wide cost-cutting initiative one year after completing the acquisition. CVS knows how to make money through its Caremark pharmacy business, and its Aetna insurance arm appears to be back on the right track, but it has yet to put together a compelling healthcare delivery strategy more ambitious than dealing with scrapes and shots at its MinuteClinics. After a wave of physician practice consolidation premised on the idea of value coming from scale, vertically integrated payers and other large platforms are now confronting the reality that scale is only useful to the extent it can be integrated effectively.
 

2. HRSA approves 340B rebate models.

  • Last Thursday, the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) approved eight drugmakers’ proposals to issue rebates instead of upfront discounts for certain drugs sold to 340B providers, starting January 1, 2026. 
  • The ten drugs in this pilot program, which HRSA announced last August would be selected from the 2026 Medicare Drug Price Negotiation list, include top sellers like Bristol Myers Squibb’s blood thinner Eliquis, Boehringer Ingelheim’s diabetes treatment Jardiance, and Janssen’s anti-inflammatory drug Stelara.
  • This rebate pilot program was created after a district court ruling from last May ordered drugmakers to continue paying upfront discounts for 340B drugs unless they could get prior approval from HRSA for their rebate programs.

TrustWorks Take: The battle between drugmakers and providers over 340B has grown with the discount-drug program’s size. Since 2018, annual 340B drug purchases have increased by 175 percent, three times faster than the growth of non-340B drug purchases, with $148B of drugs (by list price) flowing through the program in 2024. Providers, especially Disproportionate Share Hospitals, see it as an essential cross-subsidy and one of the few remaining levers at their disposal to combat margin pressures, whereas drugmakers allege that the program is rife with fraud, such as providing 340B-priced drugs to ineligible patients, which this rebate program could help prevent.
 
340B providers have protested that, by switching from upfront discounts to paying full prices for 340B drugs and requesting rebates after they’re dispensed, they’ll face higher costs from the added paperwork and cash-flow challenges from the delayed rebates. Drugmakers have always countered that this due diligence is the price providers should pay the discounted drugs. The surprising development here is that HRSA has now come out on the side of drugmakers. 340B providers can hope that the 163 Congressional lawmakers who urged HRSA to abandon the rebate program will intervene, but they may have to deal with these rebates and a less provider-friendly HRSA until Congress gets its act together to take on significant 340B reform.
 

3. 2026 Medicare PFS trims specialist and facility pay.

  • On Friday, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) published the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (PFS) final rule, headlined by a 3.26 percent conversion factor increase.
  • The 2026 PFS also includes a one-year 2.5 percent pay bump for all physicians (added by this year’s budget reconciliation law), as well as a 2.5 percent “efficiency adjustment” pay cut for about 9K “non-time-based” procedures largely performed by specialists. 
  • CMS also reallocated indirect practice expenses from facility-based services to non-facility-based services, by limiting indirect facility expense allocations to 50 percent of non-facility expense allocations.

TrustWorks Take: By pairing this “efficiency adjustment” with the one-time 2.5 percent pay raise for all physicians, CMS can argue that specialist pay isn’t getting cut, but rather that more resources are being directed to primary care services. Unfortunately, anytime Congress passes a single-year boost to physician pay, everyone is going to treat its expiration the following year like a cut. Furthermore, CMS’s stated justification that technology has allowed operative times to decrease, which is resulting in overpayments, is contradicted by at least one recent study. However, while the exact reasoning or methodology can be critiqued, CMS’s goal of increasing primary care pay is laudable, and within the budget-neutral framework of the PFS, that money has to come from somewhere.
 
The change to indirect practice expense allocations could be even more impactful, cutting facility-based payments to physicians by 7 percent overall in exchange for a 4 percent payment increase for non-facility-based care. CMS claims to be correcting for the growth of physician employment, leading to physicians being less responsible for the overhead costs, like utilities and administrative staff salaries, that constitute indirect practice expenses. However, as the American College of Cardiology points out, employed physicians still incur these overhead costs, whether or not they personally pay for them, so reducing facility payments just means the money has to come from somewhere else. 
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Hospital at Home Programs on Pause
Despite consistent bipartisan support, Congress allowed the Acute Hospital Care At Home waiver program to expire after four years and three extensions when it failed to avert a government shutdown. Over 330 hospitals had used this Medicare waiver to start or expand their own hospital at home program to promising results. One such success story, which has been paused until the waiver is reauthorized, comes from UMass Memorial Health in Worcester, MA. We interviewed its Hospital at Home program’s Medical Director, Dr. Taki Michaelidis, to learn how he, his team, and the UMass Memorial system have responded to sudden loss of regulatory approval. 

Infographic Tags:

hospital at home, Congress, Medicare, policy, waiver

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Three Questions with Constantinos (Taki) Michaelidis, MD, MBA, MS
Hospital at Home Medical Director, UMass Memorial Medical Center
 
1. Why did UMass Memorial Medical Center create its Hospital at Home program, and how was it performing prior to the government shutdown?
 
Before we stood up our program in August 2021, it was not uncommon for us to have over a hundred patients in the emergency department waiting for a hospital bed for the better part of a day, if not days. Our Hospital at Home program was a response to this capacity problem around ED boarding, which of course had all sorts of implications on quality, safety, patient satisfaction, and cost too. 
 
The first year was a little slower going—a lot of communication and change management to familiarize folks with the mode—but after operating for four years, we were rocking it as a team. Last year was the busiest year we'd ever had. We had a peak census of 24 patients, our admissions were 20 percent ahead of budget, our volume was beating all our benchmarks, and our quality and safety and patient satisfaction were phenomenal. For the same costs as traditional inpatient, we were the most patient-centered, highest quality, safest, highest patient-satisfaction unit in my entire health system.
 
Of all our patients in our EDs who met inpatient status, we could consider about 75 to 80 percent for our program, based on their payer status and geography. Thankfully, we had a great relationship with our payers, who loved that we reduced readmission rates and post-acute utilization, and we were operating in 49 towns and cities across central Massachusetts. So, mostly what we were working on was adding services and advocating for additional nurses, docs, and paramedics to grow Hospital at Home capacity. These were important but manageable micro-challenges, until the regulatory macro-challenge hit.
 
2. How did your system respond to the expiration of the Medicare Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program?
 
The September 30th expiration of the Medicare waivers was definitely challenging and painful. The telehealth and hospital-at-home waivers enjoy strong bipartisan support, and we knew they were just caught up in this budgetary fight that had nothing to do with them. Still, we saw the writing on the wall that they were going to expire, so we stopped admitting new patients and brought our census down to zero before the shutdown began. We hoped it would only last a few days, and now it’s been several weeks, but I still feel very confident that we'll be back when the government shutdown ends.
 
So, in the meantime, we’ve paused our program and redeployed staff to our brick-and-mortar facilities. We are keeping our cash burn low and adding value in other ways that we can, even if it’s less than we were doing two months ago. The whole episode has actually shown that one of the main strengths of hospital-at-home programs is flexibility.
 
Imagine that you're a health system CFO, and the government ruled that you're not allowed to put any patients in your new brick-and-mortar 72-bed hospital. How could you possibly redeploy that space to make good on all the capital you’ve spent on it? So, unlike a bed tower that took however many years and millions of dollars to build, our hospital-at-home program can expand and contract with the regulatory environment and the market much more easily. That’s a big advantage.
 
3. What makes you optimistic about the future of Hospital at Home care? 
 
There’s a lot to be pessimistic about in healthcare these days: rural hospital closures and urban hospitals at overcapacity, an aging population that people are calling a “silver tsunami” coming our way, a Congress that can’t agree on anything, and it just doesn’t feel like we can add enough brick-and-mortar hospital beds in a cost-effective manner to build our way out of this. So, what makes me optimistic is that Hospital at Home programs can help address these problems. 
 
I can’t say if the end game is 3 percent or 50 percent of inpatient care moves home (it’s probably somewhere in between), but we’ve got 30-plus years of randomized control trials showing this type of acute care at home produces great outcomes. We’ve got some of the best health systems across the country, not just ours, building and scaling these programs to great success. And we’ve got bipartisan support in Congress. 
 
So, all we’re waiting for is the regulatory certainty, which is not just another six-month or one-year extension but at least five or ten years, that’ll allow us to really commit to this as one answer to the major challenges we face. Although it can’t take us another thirty years of studies to take those next steps toward of full spectrum of home-based care, we don’t have that kind of time as a country. 

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Putting the Premium in Premium

96

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

Putting the Premium in Premium

October 21, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! One programming note, we’ll be taking next week off, meaning you’ll have to wait until Tuesday November 4th for your next TrustWorks On Call. Don’t miss us too much while we’re gone!
 

This week, we go Beyond the Whiteboard with a graphic on the growing arms race for AI applications, and we’re Dialing In on the roadblocks health systems face in venture capital. But first, the news, starting with some breaking news (for Americans who don’t live/eat/breathe/sleep healthcare) that healthcare premiums are going to be very expensive next year:


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Newsletter Tags:

ACA, MA, M&A, AI, VC

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Expensive ACA premiums go live in a dozen states.

  • Ahead of the open enrollment period beginning November 1st, about a dozen state marketplaces are now previewing their Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange plan premiums, allowing potential enrollees to see how rate increases and the loss of enhanced subsidies will impact their 2026 premiums.
  • While the average annual premium payment is projected to rise from $888 to $1904 without the enhanced subsidies, older couples in expensive markets will be hit especially hard: a 60-year-old couple in Kentucky making $85K could face a $23.7K increase for benchmark coverage, and a family of four in Maine making $130K could have to pay $16.1K more.
  • Even if Congress were to extend the enhanced ACA subsidies, state insurance officials are saying it may be too late to update next year’s rates.

TrustWorks Take: Medical cost trends alone would have driven up ACA premiums by about 8 percent in 2026, but that compounds with the loss of enhanced subsidies (along with newly added paperwork burdens), which contribute an additional 14 percent to rate growth, based on insurers’ assumptions that fewer healthier people will enroll in coverage. Although the government shutdown has likely raised the salience of the issue, most ACA enrollees were, as of late September, largely unaware that the enhanced subsidies were set to expire at the end of this year. 
 
ACA enrollees will now face a nasty sticker shock, which could cause an estimated 2M people to become uninsured rather than pay the higher premiums. A larger uninsured population, and its corresponding increase to uncompensated care costs, will have spillover effects for other commercial insurance markets. The ACA subsidies are the story for now, but employers are also facing a 9 percent increase in healthcare costs next year, meaning everyone will soon be feeling the squeeze.
 

2. Mayo Clinic joins systems dropping MA.

  • Starting next year, Mayo Clinic facilities in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will be out of network for most Medicare Advantage (MA) plans offered by UnitedHealthcare or Humana, according to an announcement last week.
  • The system, which was already out-of-network with most national MA plans, will only accept MA plans from two Minnesota insurers next year, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota and Medica, down from five last year.
  • Mayo Clinic becomes the 33rd health system or affiliated medical group to drop some or all MA plans from its network for 2026.

TrustWorks Take: Contentious negotiations between health systems and MA plans have been ramping up for years, a trend that could be supercharged by MA payers’ collective pivot from membership growth to cost containment. According to Becker’s (unofficial) running list, this year has already surpassed last year’s total number of health systems exiting the network of at least one MA payer. As regulatory headwinds for MA payers grow, they’ll look to extract more concessions from providers via lower rate increases and more burdensome utilization management.
 
In response, health systems and medical groups have demonstrated increasing willingness to walk away from the table, but patients can get left in the lurch. In the case of Mayo Clinic, not only does this decision keep MA patients from accessing the quaternary care at the system’s storied Rochester complex, but it also presents real challenges to seniors on MA plans who live in more rural areas where a Mayo facility may be the only nearby option. These dynamics help illustrate why, for the first time since at least 2007, MA enrollment may decline slightly in 2026, as fewer plan options, supplemental benefits, and network choices have reduced the program’s appeal to seniors.
 

3. UPMC plans to buy CommonSpirit subsidiary.

  • Last week, UPMC signed a nonbinding letter of intent with CommonSpirit to acquire its subsidiary Trinity Health System, a three-hospital system based in Steubenville, OH.
  • In the six months ending in June 30, 2025, UPMC posted a $349M operating income, whereas CommonSpirit recorded a full-year operating loss of $225M.

TrustWorks Take: On its face, this is a classic story of a dispersed, national system (CommonSpirit) rationalizing its geographies by offloading a few hospitals to a regional player (UPMC) looking to expand into an adjacent service market and bring its health plan across state lines. If all goes well, it could be a win-win-win for both systems and Steubenville’s residents, who live just across the state line from Pittsburgh and could benefit from better access to UPMC’s flagship facilities and care coordination.

 

This story is perhaps more notable for what it represents. Hospital M&A transactions ground to a halt in the first half of 2025, with only 13 deals announced. While activity has ticked up in Q3, a majority of those deals have been divestitures of financially distressed assets. After many systems put major strategic decisions on hold while the Trump administration’s healthcare policy took shape, there’s now enough information for systems to turn strategy into action again.

 


*|IF:FNAME=HIDDENFORAUDIENCE|*

Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Providers and Payers Deploying AI Against Each Other
According a recently released Bain and KLAS report, both providers and payers are focusing on the AI investments “most likely to improve profit margins.” Profit generation is only one way to judge AI tools, which are already being used to reduce clinician burnout and improve health outcomes. These kinds of applications will surely help providers’ bottom lines, but it might take a while for the financial impact to be measurable. Revenue cycle management, which is the top AI priority for providers this year, offers “hard-dollar ROI” more directly. Meanwhile, payers’ top priority is to automate utilization management and member care coordination. These efforts will often work against each other.
 
Providers want to use AI to generate cleaner claims and fewer denials. Payers want to manage medical spend by automating prior authorizations and steering patients toward high-value care. Whichever side develops the best AI applications the fastest will generate some portion of its profits at the other’s expense. Given that payers tend to have an edge on providers in terms of scale and technological sophistication, their AI tools may prove more effective at rationalizing care than providers’ tools at billing for care. However, the real winners of the payer-provider AI arms race could end up being the AI developers and tech platforms that get to sell their services to both sides.

Infographic Tags:

AI, providers, payers, strategy, EHR

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

To Venture or Not to Venture?
“Should we be doing what other health systems are doing in venture capital?” The board member who asked this question said he’d seen an uptick in mid-sized systems engaging with venture funds and startups, or even starting their own funds. “It was a few quiet years for everyone, but it’s not just the big systems talking to VCs right now.” To date, the system had been uninvolved in VC investing, and this board member wanted to make sure they weren’t missing out on something important.
 
Venture funds with a healthcare focus can benefit from partnerships with health systems, whose physicians can lend their expertise on clinical relevance and applicability to care models. However, health system boards interested in entering the world of venture capital first need to be honest with themselves about their capabilities and goals. Do they have the talent to evaluate good investments, ones that have the potential to be not just clinically useful but highly profitable? And are they trying to maximize access to innovative technology and partnerships, or just support their investment portfolio with diversified and profitable ventures? These questions are important for health system boards to consider because they come down to matters of governance and fiduciary stewardship, where there’s wisdom in recognizing your own limitations. Rather than reinventing the wheel by handling this all in-house, most mid-sized systems are better off partnering with a fund to whom they can outsource most of the decision-making. Just like how venture capitalists may not be the most suited to running a health system (we’ll see how Summa Health fares), health system boards are less equipped to run a venture fund than the professionals who devote their lives to it.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. Like we said up top, we’ll be taking off next Tuesday for a programming break, so you’ll have to wait until Tuesday November 4th for your next round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here!), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D'Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Strike-tober Strikes Again

96

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

Strike-tober Strikes Again

October 14, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week, we go Beyond the Whiteboard with a graphic on the decline of chain pharmacies, and we’re Dialing In on the upcoming deadline for the Rural Health Transformation Program. But first, the news, starting with the largest healthcare strike since October 2023 (featuring the same employer):


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Newsletter Tags:

labor, policy, HHS, private equity, rural

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Kaiser Permanente workers go on strike.

  • An estimated 45K healthcare workers at Kaiser Permanente began a five-day strike today, Tuesday October 14, after negotiations between the employer and several unions broke down following contract expirations at the start of this month. 
  • The United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals, which represents 31K Kaiser Permanente workers, is now asking for a 25 percent wage increase over four years (down from 38 percent in their initial bargaining), changes to scheduling and staffing, and more say in organizational decision-making. 
  • Kaiser Permanente’s latest public offer includes a 21.5 percent wage increase over four years, which translates to a total payroll increase of $2B by 2029, as well as enhanced benefits and retirement programs.

TrustWorks Take: Labor negotiations are inherently a closed-door affair, despite both sides taking their narratives to the press and public for support, so we can’t say for sure whether one side is holding up negotiations more than the other. The median salary for a registered nurse has risen from $73K in 2019 to $94K in 2024, growing 5.5 percent annually, compared to a 4.5 percent average annual inflation rate. While local markets vary, Kaiser Permanente says it pays its workers 10 percent above the market rate on average, and that the striking workers are part of a union that gets paid 16 percent above market. 
 
How negotiations play out after this strike will have a significant bearing on other contract disputes, starting with ongoing negotiations between the University of California and the California Nurses Association, whose contract is expiring at the end of October. Other West Coast systems will have to offer comparable salaries to Kaiser Permanente, if not match or outdo them, in order to maintain recruitment. At a time of stagnant reimbursement growth, systems feel like their ability to boost wages is capped, while healthcare workers see labor shortages and recent inflation as their excuse to press systems for more.
 

2. White House lays off HHS workers as shutdown continues.

  • Last Friday, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued reduction-in-force (RIF) notices to over 1,100 employees, comprising roughly one quarter of all federal layoffs the White House initiated to pressure Democrats in shutdown negotiations. 
  • Congressional negotiations to end the shutdown, which has already lasted 14 days and is on track to become one of the longest in US history, currently hinge on the Senate finding a compromise to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies, which could include stricter income caps and fraud protections.

TrustWorks Take: These RIFs during a government shutdown are unprecedented and potentially illegal, but otherwise resemble the normal course of order for the Trump administration, including its sloppy processes leading to rescinded dismissals. Intended as a negotiating tactic, the layoffs appear to be galvanizing the Democrats, and even Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), who has emerged as a key figure in ACA subsidy negotiations, opposed the layoffs and called them “arbitrary.” 
 
Congress has until November 1 to extend the subsidies before ACA enrollees’ premium payments increase by an average of 114 percent, but an important deadline has already passed. When proposing 2026 rates, insurers priced in how the enhanced subsidies expiring would result in a sicker population that’s more expensive to cover. These higher premiums could be returned to ACA enrollees as rebates if Congress extends some or all the subsidies, but no one shopping for ACA plans will choose their plan based on that chance. States could also decide to reopen their rate submission process to reprice plans with the subsidies included, but all these partial or after-the-fact patches won’t significantly move the needle toward the stable risk pool insurers desire.
 

3. California’s new CPOM rules target PE firms.

  • Last week, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed into law new restrictions on the corporate practice of medicine (CPOM) that specifically target private equity (PE) firms and hedge funds.
  • SB 351 prohibits PE firms and hedge funds from influencing physicians’ professional judgment in healthcare decisions, limits those investors’ control over certain operational decisions, and bans their use of noncompete or nondisparagement clauses in employment contracts.

TrustWorks Take: In 2025 alone, over a dozen states have passed laws to reign in PE’s influence on healthcare, largely focusing on two areas of the law: healthcare transactions and CPOM rules. In other words, states have placed limits on which physician groups PE firms can invest in, and how much control they have over those groups. California’s new law doesn’t go as far as one recently passed by Oregon (considered "the toughest state barrier to private equity in healthcare”), which both requires that physicians own a majority stake of their medical practice and limits management services organizations’ control over the clinical decision-making at their medical practices. However, a separate bill passed by the California legislature that needs Gov. Newsom’s signature would strengthen the state's ability to review and delay certain healthcare transactions. 
 
Likely spurred on by the high-profile collapse of Steward Health Care, state governments are placing guardrails on the healthcare activities of PE firms and other corporate investors to ensure that their returns on investment come from providing more and better care, rather than indiscriminate cost-cutting and price-raising tactics. However, what these laws do not address are the economic incentives, pushed but not created by PE firms, that physicians face to maximize revenues and minimize costs in today’s financially challenging environment. Even without the direct influence of PE firms, California’s physician groups will still be choosing between PE-like strategies that push productivity and revenue optimization versus physician-led care model innovation that addresses the underlying economics.
 


*|IF:FNAME=HIDDENFORAUDIENCE|*

Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

The Decline of Your Local (Chain) Drugstore
As we discussed last week, the news of Rite Aid’s final closure comes in context of the broader struggles faced by retail pharmacy chains. This week’s graphic quantifies those trends, which go as far back as 2018. That year, the total number of pharmacies began to decline, specifically driven by chain pharmacy closures, which coincided with “reported increases in planned chain pharmacy closures, mergers and acquisitions, and the integration of [pharmacy benefit managers] with large pharmacy chains.” Since then, these closures have only picked up steam, with CVS closing almost 1,200 locations between 2022 and 2025, Walgreens planning to close 1,200 of its own locations by 2027, and Rite Aid shutting down all locations after operating over 2,000 stores as recently as 2023. The unsuccessful pivot to broader care provision, which Walgreens tried most ambitiously with its purchase of VillageMD, and which CVS teased but abandoned, has also failed to pan out, helping trigger this latest wave of closures. 
 
Suffering from a vicious cycle of closures and declining revenues, chain drug stores have become consumers' least-favorite type of pharmacy, with the greatest decline in customer satisfaction since 2017 (although all pharmacy settings have declined in this measure). Compared to mail-order, mass-merchandiser, and supermarket pharmacies, chain pharmacies offer an inferior consumer experience, and their front-of-store retail offerings lack the selection or prices of their competitors. Still, when they close, their former customers often find that a bad pharmacy was preferable to no local pharmacy at all. 

Infographic Tags:

pharmacy, retail, access, CVS, consumers

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

The Rush to Rural Health Transformation      
Last week, we spoke to a policy expert who had a refreshing take on the $50B allocated for the Rural Health Transformation Program in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3A). But first, he stressed that OB3A still strikes a big blow to rural healthcare. “The math just doesn’t add up”: while $50B is a lot of money, it still pales in comparison to the financial hit rural hospitals will take should the bill’s Medicaid cuts take effect. However, his optimism stemmed from the program taking a different approach from the usual with rural healthcare policy, which has largely focused on paying rural hospitals more for doing the same kind of care, but for fewer patients. 
 
The program’s funding is allocated in two different ways. Half will be distributed equally to all 50 states, regardless of size of a state’s rural population (he quipped, “It’s a great time to be doing rural healthcare in Rhode Island!”). The other half will be distributed based on a competitive bidding process, with applications due November 5th. Given that states will have had less than two months to develop their ideas and submit, “Don’t expect a lot of fully formed ideas and details”, and that consultants will be heavily involved. Winning proposals need to demonstrate how they improve access and outcomes while also bringing new care models that prioritize data and technology to create economies of scale. 
 
Notably, while hospitals can be a part of proposed models, they are not the center: “There are a lot of people out there, including lawmakers, thinking that this is the ‘Rural Hospital Transformation Program’, and that’s not the goal.” Given the urgency, now is the time to engage state policymakers and potential participants, if you have a stake in rural care delivery. We’ll be watching closely to see what promising ideas get the dollars, and how that money spurs innovation toward a more sustainable rural healthcare system.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Shutdown Special

96

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Shutdown Special

October 7, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week, we go Beyond the Whiteboard with a graphic on CMS’s renewed push toward site neutrality, and we’re Dialing In on pediatrics groups requiring parents agree to the childhood vaccine schedule. But first, the news, featuring a two-for-one special on stories about shutdowns:


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Newsletter Tags:

policy, pharmacy, tariffs, site-neutral, vaccines

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Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Government shuts down over ACA subsidies.

  • For the first time since 2018, the federal government shut down last Wednesday, October 1st, with Senate Democrats conditioning their support for a funding bill on the extension of enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges, among other spending provisions.   
  • The House chose not to return to session this week, while the Senate negotiates over the House-passed package, which would provide funding through November 21st with a “clean” continuing resolution, and the Senate Democrats’ proposal, which includes funding through October 31st and makes the ACA subsidies permanent.
  • Congress also allowed COVID-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities and the Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program to lapse as of September 30th.

TrustWorks Take: If the enhanced subsidies are not extended before the ACA exchanges begin open enrollment on November 1st, the average ACA plan's out-of-pocket premium payment will increase by 114 percent, from $888 to $1904 annually. Protecting households from such a price shock makes the Democrats’ stand here good policy, and it appears to be good politics as well. Over three-quarters of the public, including 59 percent of Republicans, want Congress to extend the subsidies, and more Americans blame Trump and elected Republicans than elected Democrats for the shutdown. Beyond the partisan blame game, what’s really at stake is fundamental access to healthcare, especially at time when nearly every other household cost from groceries to utilities is increasing. 
 
There are other issues impacting providers during this shutdown that have gotten lost in the shuffle. Medicare beneficiaries have lost their COVID-era telehealth flexibilities, and health systems can no longer participate in the Acute Hospital Care at Home waiver program. That these policies were allowed to expire now, and that they hadn’t already been permanently extended after years of demonstrated benefits, only underscores the dysfunction and short-sightedness that seems to be characteristic of current Congressional healthcare policymaking.
 

2. Rite Aid shutters all stores.

  • As per a notice posted on its website last Saturday, retail pharmacy chain Rite Aid has permanently closed its remaining stores.
  • Rite Aid, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in both October 2023 and May 2025, had already reduced its footprint of stores from thousands at its peak to fewer than 100 as of last week.
  • During this year's bankruptcy proceedings, Rite Aid sold the prescription files for about 1,000 of its stores to other large retail pharmacies like CVS and Walgreens, although only a small fraction of those stores have continued to operate under new management; no buyer emerged for the Rite Aid brand itself.
  • Rite Aid’s “perfect storm” of problems included pandemic-induced sales declines, an increasingly cost-sensitive customer base, a vicious cycle of declining vendor relations, large settlements over its alleged role in the opioid epidemic, an inability to raise more capital, and a high debt burden that made it nearly impossible to respond to these challenges.

TrustWorks Take: Although the pandemic and various opioid settlements may have delivered the final blows, the pivotal moment in this story dates back to 2017, when the Federal Trade Commission blocked Rite Aid’s attempt to merge with Walgreens due to antitrust concerns related to a reduction of competition in the retail pharmacy market. Walgreens has fared little better, having recently gone private and restructured after failing to make good on its purchase of VillageMD. Without a profitable pharmacy benefit manager, like CVS’s Caremark, or a thriving retail operation, like Walmart, the chain drug store model isn’t sufficiently profitable on its own and faces too many successful competitors. Had that 2017 merger gone through, the combined entity may have still found itself in a similar boat today, but the irony is that CVS, the largest pharmacy business by revenue, appears most poised to benefit from Rite Aid’s closure. CVS can selectively scoop up Rite Aid’s customers, who tend to be older and live in lower-income urban or rural areas, while the least desirable locations Rite Aid had served will stay closed. What began as a perceived antitrust victory now looks more like another chapter in the growing crisis of pharmacy deserts and the further erosion of healthcare access.
 

3. White House strikes Medicaid deal with Pfizer.

  • Last Tuesday, President Donald Trump and Pfizer CEO Dr. Albert Boula announced that Pfizer, in exchange for three years of tariff relief, has agreed to lower its prices for many of the drugs it sells to state Medicaid programs; it will also align its list prices for new drugs across the US and other wealthy nations. 
  • As part of the deal, the White House also teased TrumpRx.gov, a new direct-to-consumer (D2C) pharmaceutical website launching in 2026 that will connect consumers to drugmakers’ own D2C websites and allow them to purchase drugs outside of their insurance for a 50-percent average discount.

TrustWorks Take: This deal is designed to make it seem like the White House is addressing healthcare affordability, despite doing very little to lower costs for consumers. Because Medicaid drug copays are almost always nominal capped fees, whatever savings state Medicaid programs may see from lower drug prices can’t be passed onto Medicaid beneficiaries. (It should go without saying that the scheduled Medicaid cuts will have far more of an impact on drug affordability for Medicaid programs and their beneficiaries.) A meaningful deal would have included employers, private insurers, and Medicare, where consumer out-of-pocket spend is more directly tied to drug costs. Meanwhile, the forthcoming TrumpRx D2C website operates outside of insurance altogether, making it no different than GoodRx and no more than a coupon-and-redirect service for drugmakers’ own sales efforts. Perhaps the most impactful aspect for consumers of this “artful deal” is Pfizer securing a three-year guarantee of tariff relief, freeing the company from deciding how much of the tariff to pass onto consumers.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

The Inevitability of Site Neutrality
The 2026 Hospital Outpatient Prospective Payment System (OPPS) Proposed Rule picks up where the first Trump administration left off, proposing to eliminate over three years Medicare’s Inpatient Only (IPO) List, which identifies procedures that Medicare only reimburses in the hospital inpatient setting. The proposed rule is very similar to the 2021 OPPS Final Rule, which was promulgated under Trump but implemented under Biden. The rule initiated a three-year phase-out of the IPO List, only for the Biden administration to reverse course and restore the IPO List in 2022. If this year’s rule is finalized, almost 300 procedures, mostly musculoskeletal, will move off the IPO List in 2026, and over 500 procedures, about half of which were on the IPO List, will be added to the Ambulatory Surgery Center Covered Procedures List (ASC CPL). 
 
Departing from precedent, the Trump administration is indicating that it no longer recognizes a patient-safety distinction between the inpatient and outpatient procedures, and that it will be far more permissive toward procedures performed at ASCs. This has huge implications for hospitals because, as evidenced by knee and hip replacements, procedures tend to migrate quickly to their lowest-cost allowable settings. And once Medicare covers something on an outpatient basis, commercial payers are quick to follow. Many health systems are still holding onto inpatient procedural revenues as an important cross subsidy, but the march toward site neutrality feels inevitable. The transition can be slowed down or sped up, but it’s going in only one direction.

Infographic Tags:

site-neutral, outpatient, ASC, Medicare, CMS

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Vaccine Agreements as a Pediatric Prerequisite
On a call with the head of a health system-sponsored medical group based in the suburbs of a metro area in a “purple” state, the conversation turned to rising vaccine hesitancy among their patient population. “You never know what ‘alternative opinions’ you’re going to get with our patients,” he admitted. “Our pediatricians seem especially demoralized. It’s hard to repeatedly hold these delicate, difficult, and important conversations in short appointment windows.” Because of that, one of the system’s pediatrics practices is contemplating putting together a proposal to require parents to agree to their evidence-based childhood vaccine schedules in order to register any child as a patient. He was curious to learn how well those worked in other places. 
 
We haven’t yet come across a health system medical group instituting a vaccine agreement policy like that as prerequisite to becoming a patient, but we’ve heard about it from a few independent practices. Admittedly, there’s something unsettling about anything that denies patients access to care by limiting their choice of provider. However, vaccines are among the most important and impactful healthcare services a child can receive, and many pediatricians rightly feel that their duty to care for the health of their patients includes getting them vaccinated. By having the conversations about vaccine schedules upfront, it saves frontline doctors the stress of convincing parents on a case-by-case basis. It also gives parents the opportunity to reflect on their approach to vaccination, making it part of a broader choice on whom they want caring for their child. 
 
Ultimately, it’s a chance for the medical group to convey its values and practices up front, which can have a rallying effect for providers and staff. For a medical group to determine if this approach is right for them, it should start with an honest internal discussion that weighs the goal of providing what they perceive to be the best care against the impacts on access to the specific communities they serve. Is this a different conversation in a suburban market with plenty of pediatrics groups versus in a rural community with far more limited options?

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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There’s a Doctor in the House

96

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There's a Doctor in the House

September 30, 2025

Hello, we’re back with another TrustWorks On Call, your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week starts with a special announcement. We are thrilled to welcome Lisa Bielamowicz, MD, as our new Chief Clinical Officer. From her time as Chief Medical Officer of the Advisory Board and as co-founder of Gist Healthcare, Lisa has earned her reputation as one of the smartest strategic thinkers and strongest communicators in the industry. You can read more about this exciting announcement on our website.
 

Lisa’s expertise will be invaluable to us at TrustWorks as we help healthcare systems navigate today’s complex healthcare landscape. Plus, she’ll sharpen the insights you’re getting from TrustWorks On Call! So don’t miss our Dialing In below, where Lisa answers our three burning questions on healthcare in 2025. But first, the news:


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Newsletter Tags:

tariffs, pharmaceuticals, physicians, immigration, Tylenol

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Trump sets 100 percent pharma tariff, with many exceptions.

  • In a Truth Social post last Thursday, President Trump announced that starting October 1, brand-name pharmaceutical drugs will face a 100-percent tariff unless the company is building a plant to manufacture the drug domestically. 
  • This tariff will not apply to generic drugs, which usually face no tariffs, or drugs covered by a recent trade deal with the European Union (EU), which are capped at 15 percent. 
  • Over 40 percent of active ingredients for US brand-name drugs, which are used for only one in ten prescriptions, are made outside of the US or EU and could fall subject to the tariff.
  • The White House has also hinted at upcoming regulation which would aim to equalize the drug prices paid in the US and abroad, potentially by imposing price controls on drugmakers tied to the lowest prices paid by peer nations. 

TrustWorks Take: Given the considerable exemptions, the headline looks scarier than the details, as most brand-name drugs are already manufactured in the US or EU. The United Kingdom’s AstraZeneca and Switzerland’s Roche and Novartis are the most notable companies threatened by the tariff, although AstraZeneca and Roche’s US factories recently under construction could spare them. Smaller drugmakers based in Asia or other parts of North America, who lack the capital to finance new US factories, face the greatest exposure, and the patients who rely on their relatively niche brand-name drugs could suffer from price increases and shortages. Trump’s negotiating tactics appear to be successfully reshoring some domestic manufacturing for pharmaceuticals, but these efforts could be counterproductive to the administration’s other goal of lowering drug prices. Heavily taxing smaller drugmakers and inducing larger drugmakers to spend more domestically on capital and labor could raise the cost of doing business for these companies, which ultimately gets passed onto consumers through higher premiums, cost-sharing, and out-of-pocket spending.
 

2. Doctors may be exempted from $100K H-1B visa applications.

  • After President Trump signed a proclamation earlier this month that H-1B visas, which allow educated immigrants to work “specialty occupations” domestically, would require an additional $100K application fee from employers, the American Medical Association and 54 other medical societies petitioned the administration to exempt all physicians, including those in non-clinical settings.
  • In a statement to Bloomberg News, a White House spokesperson clarified that “the proclamation allows for potential exemptions, which can include physicians and medical residents,” leaving it up to the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, to waive the application fee. 
  • Current holders of H-1B visas and their employers will not be subject to this one-time fee.

TrustWorks Take: International medical graduates, most of whom need H-1B visas to work here, comprise 23 percent of the country’s licensed physicians, with outsized importance to the rural and underserved communities where it is hardest to recruit physicians. Unlike the big tech companies who also rely on H-1B visa workers, many health systems do not have the margins to absorb these new visa fees without workforce reductions and service cutbacks. (Maintaining 60 H-1B visas would cost about an additional $1M per year, going forward.) And unlike protectionist policies to boost domestic manufacturing, the US physician supply is not suppressed by international competition but rather by its own artificial limits on medical residency slots. It is therefore a relief to hear that physicians could be exempted from this policy, but we are still waiting for confirmation. Meanwhile, the uncertainty it has produced could still have a chilling effect on international physician recruitment. The US has benefited from its reputation as a place that welcomes the best and brightest from around the world to practice medicine, but new policies can quickly lead to a different reputation. Not only is the U.S. at risk of losing top research talent due to funding cuts, but we may now also lose critical medical expertise if visa barriers discourage physicians from practicing here.
 

3. White House promotes unproven autism-acetaminophen link.

  • At a White House Briefing last week featuring Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Marty Makary, President Trump advanced the claim that Tylenol’s active ingredient, acetaminophen, is an important root cause of autism, and that pregnant women should “tough it out,” and “fight like hell not to take [Tylenol].”
  • This week, President Trump posted that parents shouldn’t give Tylenol to their children “for virtually any reason” and recommended delays to the childhood vaccine schedule.
  • At the event last week, administration officials also announced $50M of federal research funding to investigate potential causes of autism, including vaccines; additionally, they approved leucovorin, traditionally used to treat chemotherapy side effects, as a treatment for children with autism and a folate deficiency.

TrustWorks Take: The President’s nearly unprecedented decision to dispense direct medical advice to the public (comparable perhaps only to his behavior during COVID, in his first term) would be concerning even if it didn’t contradict the scientific consensus that no causal link between acetaminophen and autism has been found. Tylenol remains one of the few safe options for pain relief during pregnancy, and avoiding its use could result in untreated fevers, migraines, or high blood pressure, all of which pose a greater risk of fetal harm than acetaminophen itself. And the dangers posed by this politicization of medical research go far beyond Tylenol usage in pregnancy. Instead of directly interpreting evidence, people tend to rely on trusted authorities to know what’s best for their health. The intrusion of partisan politics into personal healthcare decisions and regulatory health guidance is confusing, divisive, and a deterrent to effective care. However, most Americans still trust their personal doctor more than any other medical authority or politician, which puts physicians on the front lines of the battle to defend evidence-based healthcare.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Consumers About to be Caught in Health Plan Crunch
During the upcoming open enrollment season for Medicare Advantage (MA), a record 28 percent of MA members are expected to switch plans, driven by payers cancelling unprofitable plans and paring back benefits. The loss of supplemental benefits is even inspiring some enrollees to leave MA for traditional Medicare, with MA’s share of Medicare enrollment projected to fall from 50 to 48 percent next year. The largest MA payers are pivoting from membership growth to margin control because rising medical costs and slowed federal reimbursement growth have taken the wind out of MA’s profitable sales. CVS-Aetna and Humana have led this charge since 2024, while payers like UnitedHealth Group (UHG) are playing catchup by promising to cut 600K members’ plans in 2026, after picking up too many members shed by Aetna and Humana in the year before. Although fewer plan options could be a problem for MA beneficiaries, the individuals and small businesses purchasing insurance on the Affordable Care Act exchanges are facing a catastrophe. Average premium increases of 18 percent are the result of higher utilization and medical costs hitting at the same time as the expiration of enhanced subsidies. For a family of four making $85K, the premiums they pay each month could go up by 94 percent, unless Congress acts to extend the enhanced subsidies. The expiration of these subsidies could cause 2.9M people to lose health insurance in 2026 alone, which is why Congressional Democrats have made it a top issue in ongoing budgetary negotiations to avoid a government shutdown. This crisis can still be avoided, but we are running out of time.

Infographic Tags:

payers, consumers, premiums, Medicare, ACA

*|END:IF|*

Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Three Questions with Lisa Bielamowicz, MD
 
Given all the uncertainty, where do you advise people to focus?
Get unstuck! So many leaders look at the political and economic chaos and think it’s safest to enter a holding pattern. But it’s dangerous to stand still in a chaotic market because standing still means falling behind. We know the challenges of the health system business model, and we must keep moving to find the right efficiencies while also innovating. I’m reminded of a quote, “Chaos is a ladder”. A turbulent market can provide outsized opportunities for those organizations who remain focused and diligent.
 
What is the most difficult conversation you’ve facilitated with boards or C-suites in 2025?
For perhaps the first time ever, providers need to develop their own individual, unique strategy. Health systems often look to the external market for strategic direction. Think back over the past twenty or thirty years. In the early 2000s, we all competed by bringing the best clinical technology to the forefront. Remember the billboards for da Vinci robots on the side of the road? With the passage of the ACA, everyone launched an ACO and focused on value-based care. For the past several years, it’s been all about consumer and digital health. Now, there’s not a common identity that everyone is chasing. This makes strategy setting a lot harder. First, you have to understand your market position, strengths, weaknesses, ambitions, competitive environment. Then, you have to actually create something unique. It’s a lot harder. 
 
What’s something that has you optimistic about healthcare in 2025?
When you ask consumers whom they trust to help them make important healthcare decisions, providers, from personal doctors and nurses to institutions like their local hospitals and health systems, are still at the top of the list. It’s a fantastic relationship to build from and deepen. But to be the kind of partner patients and customers are looking for, we need to be maximizing the value delivered: accessibility, affordability, and a seamless experience in every interaction, big or small. There’s tremendous opportunity to build long-term loyalty in a way that will be much more difficult for insurer or retailer to accomplish.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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Board Season 2025

96

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Board Season 2025

September 23, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

We’re doing something a little different this week. We’ve prepared a primer to commemorate the official end of summer and the start of Board Season, when like fall foliage, all the year’s strategic objectives come into view before we frantically sweep them into neat piles. First, we go Behind the Headlines on the four stories defining healthcare in fall 2025. After that, we'll take you Beyond the Whiteboard with a framework on how health systems can position themselves as anchors in the care ecosystem. Finally, we're Dialing In on our industry’s need for a strategic rallying cry.


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Newsletter Tags:

primer, policy, corporate, health systems, strategy

*|END:IF|*

Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Policymaking proceeds without respect for precedent.

  • On March 3, 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) published a rule rescinding the Richardson Waiver, which required notice and comment procedures for regulations relating to public property, loans, grants, benefits, or contracts.
  • The Trump administration’s efforts to reduce the size of the federal healthcare workforce by about 25 percent have been caught up in the courts, with the Supreme Court allowing some cuts to proceed, while another injunction protecting certain HHS employees is still standing. Throughout this, many nonpartisan healthcare civil servants, including top experts and leaders, have chosen to or been forced to resign.
  • HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decisions to fire all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Vaccines (ACIP) and replace them with some known vaccine skeptics, who in turn have presided over tense meetings and recommended limitations on vaccines, have served as flash points for the Trump Executive Branch’s approach to healthcare policy. 
  • Public opinion polls fielded in August have found that confidence in federal healthcare agencies has dropped about ten points since last September.

TrustWorks Take: Despite the preeminence of the US Constitution and the magnitude of the Federal Register (some years reaching nearly 100K pages), the US government itself is largely governed by norms and unwritten rules. For example, the rule that most healthcare regulation requires a notice and comment period can be undone with a new rule, issued without notice or comment. Even actions that may be against “the rules,” such as the dismissal of some federal healthcare workers, are up to the interpretation of a judicial system headed by a Supreme Court that has steadily ceded more authority to the Executive Branch. In theory, future administrations could reverse these actions, but in practice, we may be experiencing a “Humpty Dumpty” moment: our institutions could be broken in ways that cannot be put back together again. The damage is both internal, by losing top scientists and institutional knowledge, and external, by losing the public’s unquestioning trust. Even if new leadership comes to town, it will take years to rebuild what it took months to destroy. Without the federal government as the single source of truth on important healthcare decisions, such as vaccine safety and coverage, the burden falls on health systems, payers, physicians, and patients to find their own sources of guidance, expertise, and truth.
 

2. Government “efficiency” is here to stay.

  • This year’s budget reconciliation law, known as H.R. 1 or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is projected to reduce federal Medicaid spending by $990B and enrollment by about 7.5M over the next ten years, and cut federal spending on the exchanges by about $213B and enrollment by 2.4M.
  • Spearheaded by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative, the Trump administration has pursued massive cuts to science and healthcare research funding, including $4.5B of National Institutes of Health (NIH) grants and almost $1B of National Science Foundation grants, impacting research into vaccines, cancer, and infectious disease. The 2025 White House budget request includes a 43 percent cut to NIH funding.
  • Healthcare is again expected to feature in Congressional deliberations this fall, including a likely extension on Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payments, which serve more low-income patients, and an uphill battle to preserve Marketplace premium tax credits before they expire at the end of this year.

TrustWorks Take: There’s no sugar coating to be found on these scheduled cuts to public insurance programs, which will painful everywhere, but especially disastrous in Medicaid expansion states with large rural populations. Providers can hope that a future Congress will reverse course before most of the cuts have taken effect (76 percent of the Medicaid cuts are scheduled for 2030-2034), but they should prepare for a future where this law is fully enacted. And more cuts could be on the way. Under Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) have been advancing site-neutral payment reforms, and there’s growing bipartisan interest in using them as a tool for cost savings. These efforts dovetail with the continued privatization of Medicare through Medicare Advantage (MA), which is now getting bipartisan attention for potential reform due to excessive upcoding and prior authorizations. Medicare benefits have long been a “sacred cow” that Congress would never consider cutting, but the new logic of “efficiency,” especially when applied to MA’s well-documented history of fraud, could be the rhetorical tool that permits Congress to do the previously unthinkable.
 

3. Corporate healthcare has lost its momentum.

  • Medicare Advantage payers are undertaking a significant retrenchment by pulling back on the number of plans they offer and markets they serve, driven by rising medical costs and slowed growth of federal reimbursements.
  • UnitedHealth Group (UHG) has particularly struggled this year with higher-than-expected medical costs, as consecutive quarters of declining profits have shaken investor confidence after UHG had earned a reputation for reliable profit growth.  
  • Across the last two years, the healthcare ventures of several retail giants have wound down amid disappointing financial returns: Walmart Health closed, Walgreens sold VillageMD, CVS replaced its CEO and closed hundreds of stores.
  • Private equity (PE) firms are struggling to find strategic exits after rolling up physician groups into larger platforms; one study found that, for PE groups that acquired dermatology, ophthalmology, and gastroenterology groups between 2016 and 2020, 98 percent of investment exits were through sales to another PE group.

TrustWorks Take: Corporations with the size and scale of UHG or CVS should never be counted out, but they can temporarily falter. One year ago, CVS was a disaster and on the verge of firing CEO Karen Lynch, whereas UHG was still an unstoppable giant whose biggest headache was the Change Healthcare hack. Now, Wall Street loves CVS for its recovery and has no faith in UHG after its series of missteps. The opposing narratives around these two companies are the talk of Wall Street, but stock analysis can obscure the structural problems they both face: the commercial insurance and MA markets are destabilizing and delivering unsteady returns. In response, vertically integrated payers, only a few years removed from expansionary dreams, have entered retrenchment cycles focused on cost containment over membership growth. Meanwhile, the PE firms betting on these corporate players to back their strategic exits for their physician platforms are instead passing the bag to larger PE firms to extract even more efficiencies. Even for corporate giants with nearly endless scale, there’s no replacing a good strategy, and these days strategic stasis abounds.

4. Challenges on both sides of the balance sheet threaten the health system business model.

  • The not-for-profit hospital sector continues to recover from the pandemic, especially the impacts on labor spending. The sector’s median operating margin in 2025 rose to 1.1 percent from 0.4 percent last year, according to Fitch Ratings. 
  • The current policy environment is expected to exacerbate revenue and cost problems for health systems and medical groups, including statutory cuts to public insurance hurting revenues, tariffs increasing the costs of drugs and supplies, and immigration restrictions, such as President Trump’s recent order that H-1B visa applications will now cost employers $100K instead of less than $5K, reducing the supply of healthcare workers and driving up labor costs.

TrustWorks Take: For providers, the threat of expense growth outpacing revenue growth is at the same time existential and all-too familiar. Medicare payment updates have lagged inflation for years, the outpatient shift has moved more procedures that were once vital sources of inpatient revenue, and vertically integrated payers have been consolidating insurance markets and encroaching on care delivery for decades by now. Today, these longstanding forces are converging in a weakened post-COVID fiscal environment that’s at risk of total destabilization by the chaotic policy environment. These uncertainties compound the bread-and-butter challenges of maximizing operational efficiency. The writing is on the wall: systems that are eking out a positive margin today could lose it soon if they don’t commit to strategic transformation that weans them off the cross-subsidy business model.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

A Positive Vision for Health Systems
Against the backdrop of unprecedented threats to the health system business model, we’d like to offer an organizing principle for health system strategy: health systems should strive to serve as the trusted “anchor” for consumers across their health journey. To do so, they must move beyond episodic encounters and build comprehensive, relationship-based care anchored in four core components: hospital and procedural care, primary and specialty care, care personalization, and care coordination. These components may be delivered directly or through curated partnerships, but always within a health system-connected network. Episodic care alone won’t sustain loyalty, revenue, or long-term viability. The “anchor” role requires health systems to deliberately curate a connected ecosystem of services, whether owned or partnered, that keeps patients inside their orbit. That means making trust, continuity, and personalization as core to the strategic plan as capital investments. The real differentiator requires evolving from just providing care to orchestrating the entire healthcare journey in a way that consumers and families feel supported over time and across life. That’s where health systems can translate their legacy of clinical credibility into durable consumer relationships, which is our bet for the future’s true competitive advantage.

Infographic Tags:

health system, strategy, access, consumers, anchor

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Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Curing “Strategic Stasis” 
Despite all the lip service toward lofty goals like transformation, building scale, or moving to value, most health systems and medical groups these days seem stuck in a holding pattern. There’s plenty of excuses, such as the unstable political and economic environments, for why staying the course is preferable at this time, but I often find these excuses coming from Baby Boomer CEOs who I know are only a few years from retirement. But whatever the underlying cause may be, the diagnosis is clear: our industry is sick with a “strategic stasis,” and the lack of a common direction across providers is keeping many systems standing still. 
 
Twenty years ago, systems focused on innovation and clinical technology to fuel service line growth. The passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010 launched accountable care organizations and other initiatives focused on managing population risk. When value-based contracts were slow to materialize, even the most motivated systems still focused primarily on fee-for-service growth. Many then shifted to a docket of consumer-focused strategies, boosted by the momentum of telemedicine during COVID. Today, there is not a single strategic rallying cry across the provider industry. Health systems have to look at their individual strengths and market position to set direction, without the cover of what everyone else is doing. Watching the market and retrenching in fee-for-service, inpatient-focused growth won’t slow the shifting demographics, disruptive competition, and outpatient migration undermining the current cross subsidy-based business model. Financial challenges will continue to mount. Providers will be pressured to make cuts. But without a vision for where they’re going, the first things axed from the budget are often the investments to fuel innovation. The pace of change hasn’t slowed. Standing still today means providers will start to fall behind.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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iBlood Pressure

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TrustWorks On Call Newsletter Header

iBlood Pressure

September 16, 2025

Hello and welcome back to TrustWorks On Call, here with your healthcare business and strategy 411 for the week. If you enjoy our work, please consider forwarding it along to a friend and encouraging them to subscribe! 
 

This week, we go Beyond the Whiteboard with a graphic on the growing gap between practice costs and physician pay, and we're Dialing In on what can happen when you get your board to look in the mirror. But first, the news, including how Apple devices can now tell you if you have high blood pressure:


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Newsletter Tags:

Kaiser Permanente, MAHA, hypertension, physicians, governance

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Behind the Headlines

Unpacking the forces driving healthcare’s biggest stories.

1. Kaiser Permanente to joint venture with Renown Health.

  • Last Wednesday, Kaiser Permanente (KP) and Renown Health, an integrated delivery network and the largest health system based in Reno, NV, announced a joint venture to operate a health plan and outpatient care delivery system in northern Nevada. 
  • The joint venture, called Kaiser Permanente Nevada, will sell health plan coverage to employers and residents in northern Nevada and provide multispecialty, ambulatory care, using both new and existing clinics. 
  • The deal, targeted to close in early 2026 pending regulatory approval, involves KP buying a majority stake in Renown’s health plan, Hometown Health, which will operate with KP’s technical and purchasing support but with no other immediate changes; Renown Health will continue to operate independently, as well.

TrustWorks Take: Unlike KP’s Risant Health, which is slowly acquiring value-minded systems across the country, this joint venture with Renown offers a quicker integration of KP’s health plan business into a new, adjacent market. KP Nevada will be able to offer employer, individual, and Medicare Advantage plans that target the significant overlap in people living, commuting, working, and vacationing between KP’s northern California and Renown’s northern Nevada base, whose population growth has been fueled in large part by California transplants. Both Risant and this joint venture represent KP’s attempts to expand its footprint in less-regulated, high-growth states, while staying true to its longstanding commitment to value-based care. As for Renown, its solid financial footing allowed it to be selective in finding a partner, as it reportedly spent several years vetting options before choosing KP to help it better serve large employers that cover an ever-increasing percentage of the northern Nevada workforce.
 

2. Trump admin releases children’s health report.

  • Last Tuesday, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission, a team of top Trump administration healthcare and social policy officials, published its Make Our Children Healthy Again Assessment, outlining how different government agencies, including the Departments of Health and Human Services, the Department of Agriculture, and the Environmental Protection Agency, could work to improve the health of American children.
  • The report included 128 recommendations, which are not binding but could influence future regulatory actions, targeting the four primary drivers it identified as contributing to the rise of chronic disease in children: poor diet, chemical exposure, inadequate physical activity, and overmedicalization. 
  • Environmental groups and MAHA allies have criticized the report for failing to propose new pesticide regulations, while the report's directive to develop a new “vaccine framework” for children has stoked fears that newly reconstituted Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) is going to weaken the childhood vaccine schedule.

TrustWorks Take: This grab-bag list of nonbinding policy ideas lacks a coherent implementation plan, and it is only important insofar as it reveals the (sometimes competing) priorities of the Trump administration. In many cases, the report identifies real problems, such as poor nutrition and excess chemical exposure. However, the administration has demonstrated little credibility to tackle these problems, as evidenced by Congress’s recent cuts to federal food aid and the report's weakened stance on pesticide regulations. Meanwhile, its proposals around childhood vaccines could have directly negative consequences by promoting disproven safety concerns that undermine the already shaky vaccine confidence among parents. (The New York Times is reporting that ACIP, when it meets this Thursday, is “widely expected” to limit its hepatitis B shot recommendation to only the babies whose mothers are known to be infected.) And finally, there are the topics the report refuses to touch due to political inconvenience, such as the two leading causes of adolescent deaths: gun violence and car crashes.
 

3. FDA clears Apple Watch to detect hypertension.

  • Last week, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted regulatory clearance for Apple Watches to use optical heart sensors to detect signs of hypertension. 
  • Apple shared that this feature, which will collect and review data over a 30-day period before notifying users of potential hypertension, is now available on its latest smartwatch models. 

TrustWorks Take: Among the nearly half of US adults with hypertension, less than one in four have their blood pressure under control, while over half of adults with uncontrolled hypertension don't even know they have it. Apple’s hypertension detection feature, which is not meant to replace a clinical diagnosis, is targeted at those tens of millions of Americans for whom a push notification might be the warning they need to seek formal diagnosis and treatment. Removing the barriers between patients and their own health information should be a good thing, especially given primary care access shortages; however, access to those next steps remains a challenge. Should your watch notify you of your hypertension risk, you’ll still need to find a healthcare provider, confirm the diagnosis, and commit to a treatment that works for you. These wearable tech biometric assessments will only unlock their potential to move the needle on Americans’ health once they’re connected to the infrastructure of care delivery. The real measure of success won’t be how many watches send notifications, but how well those alerts are translated, via action inside the health system, into improved outcomes for its users.
 


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Beyond the Whiteboard

Visualizing key trends from the healthcare industry

Medicare’s Ever-Growing Physician Pay Gap
Every year, we see the same song and dance play out: the proposed Medicare physician fee schedule (PFS) includes an unacceptable cut, lobbying groups work frantically to either change the final rule or get Congress to intervene, and when the net result is essentially the maintenance of last year’s levels, physicians almost feel like they’ve won. What that process obscures is how, over the last 25 years, the Medicare PFS conversion factor, used to assign dollar values to the services for which physicians bill Medicare, has declined 9 percent, while the Medicare Economic Index, which measures practice cost inflation, has increased 59 percent. Health Secretary Kennedy has signaled a willingness to reform how Medicare pays its physicians, but it seems unlikely this administration would do away with relevant budget neutrality requirements in order to make physicians feel whole. Instead, physician groups have been left to sort out rising costs and flat-lined payments on their own, leading to workforce instability, widening specialty shortages, and downstream access problems for patients, especially in rural and safety-net settings where Medicare is the dominant payer. These issues of cost and revenue may seem operational on the surface, but they have deep implications for strategy and governance. Such a threat to the survival of the physician group, and the viability of its underlying operating model, should demand the entire organization’s attention, from the C-suite and boardroom down to the clinic floor, back office, and supply room. 

Infographic Tags:

physicians, Medicare, inflation, reimbursement, costs

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Dialing In

Sharing insights from our work with clients

Holding a Mirror to the Board
One of the physician enterprises we work with recently completed its first board self-assessment. On the surface, the exercise was simple: a structured survey about board composition, meeting effectiveness, decision-making, and process, combined with a few interviews and a report on the findings. However, the process gave board members a rare chance to look in the mirror and evaluate their own performances, as individuals and a collective. 
 
They generally liked what they saw, but the discussion touched on both areas that were easily addressable (too much time spent on report outs and not enough on strategy, lack of regular education regarding the larger environment, etc.) and bigger issues that needed attention (unclear lines between board oversight and management execution). It helped foster among board members a greater clarity on their roles, renewed trust in one another, and a stronger sense of shared accountability. Most importantly, they found tangible connections between how effectively they were governing and the impact on overall organizational performance. 
 
Nothing sinks an organization quicker than bad governance, but board self-assessments are still rare in many medical groups. One reason for this is that many groups (and boards) view governance work as a chore that is tacked onto their busy schedules, rather than as an essential aspect of a high-functioning organization. When balancing the demands of growth, sustainability, strategic direction, risk, and alignment with other market players, board self-assessments can be a catalyst for productive conversations well-worth their time on the calendar, which is why this group already scheduled another one for next year.

Thank you for tuning into this week’s TrustWorks On Call. We’ll see you next Tuesday with another round of TrustWorks Takes. With your help in sharing TrustWorks On Call (subscribe here), we’re living up to the Collective in TrustWorks Collective. And if you ever need help thinking through a healthcare problem, don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Best Regards,
Anthony D’Eredita and TrustWorks Collective

 

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