Last month, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated its baseline projections of health insurance coverage by source for the first time since June 2024. In the intervening time, Congress reduced federal health insurance payments by roughly $1.5T over the next decade, including $1T in Medicaid cuts from last year’s budget reconciliation package, and the $350B in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced subsidies that Congress opted not to renew. Taking these massive policy changes into account, the CBO projects that by 2036 Medicaid enrollment will drop by 11.5M (14 percent of the current level), ACA exchange enrollment will fall by 7.5M (33 percent of the current level), and the uninsured population will grow by 10.8M (41 percent higher than the current level). These changes will not be spread evenly over the next ten years, as the ACA cuts are already taking effect and will hit an enrollment low in 2028, before gradually improving under stabilized market conditions, while the Medicaid cuts begin to phase in next year. About half of the people losing Medicaid or ACA coverage are expected to become uninsured after not finding coverage elsewhere. Even if the next presidential administration makes it a day-one priority in 2029 to reverse these cuts and restore federal healthcare funding, 10M people will have already lost their health insurance.