Trump’s tariff policies have the potential to be the most impactful aspect of his transformative agenda. In typical Trump fashion, they’re a contradictory combination of good policy and negotiating posture, to be imposed, paused, and redoubled at will. As the details of specific tariff policies for certain goods or countries are liable to change at any moment, our graphic this week instead captures the general economic consequences for providers of blanket tariffs, such as the minimum 10 percent tariff currently in effect for all countries. The first and most obvious impact of this tariff is higher drug, medical device, and supply costs, which together amount to roughly $250B of US imports annually. Who absorbs these costs is complicated by the long-term, fixed-price nature of healthcare contracts, but the market will readjust via occasional shortages, margin hits along the supply and care delivery chains, and higher prices for patients. Economists say those ingredients are a recipe for stagflation, which is the root of the secondary problem for providers. Inflation calls for higher interest rates, which makes debt more expensive, and strategic planning goes on pause when you can’t price future goods, so capital projects are put on hold. Before long, corporate struggles will translate to a pullback in consumer spending, including on healthcare. Providers, who have recently been enjoying robust care volumes, don’t want to find out if healthcare is still “recession-proof,” nor do their (increasingly cost-exposed) patients, but care avoidance would likely increase. The only potential advantage of tariffs comes in the quaternary tier (not pictured), in which domestic manufacturing delivers us a more secure supply chain in the face of crisis. Somehow. In the Distant Future. It could be a difficult present until then.