Healthcare job growth is showing signs of weakness in 2025, but it’s one of the only sectors of the economy with any job growth at all. The healthcare and social assistance sector has been responsible for 93 percent of the net employment gains this year, after making up almost half the net employment gains in the two years prior. Despite this, or more likely because of it, healthcare companies have struggled to be profitable amid high labor costs, and the largest publicly traded healthcare companies have provided poor returns for investors. In contrast, big tech stocks have been market darlings for years, and the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Meta are pouring billions into AI infrastructure to maintain this advantage. 
 
These two trends are more connected than they appear. AI’s great promise is to improve productivity, in large part by replacing human labor. AI innovations will surely transform the healthcare system, including its relationship to labor. Compared to other industries, however, healthcare will remain relatively dependent on human labor, especially for jobs at the bedside that face relatively low risk of disruption by AI. This divergence between healthcare and tech illustrates a structural risk for the U.S. economy: labor growth concentrated in a sector with limited productivity upside, and capital growth concentrated in a sector that generates profits but few jobs. Without intentional policies that bridge these two poles and investments that plug AI innovation into healthcare operations and workforce models, the country risks entrenching an economy where healthcare functions as the nation’s jobs program, while tech captures the value. That’s neither sustainable nor equitable.